||Hou, Zhonge; Jin, Pengyu; Liu, Hongguang; Qiao, Huijie; Sket, Boris; Cannizzaro, Andrew G.; Berg, David J.; Li, Shuqiang
||Climate changes have substantial impacts on the geographic distribution of montane lakes and evolutionary dynamics of cold-adapted species. Past climate cooling is hypothesized to have promoted the dispersal of cold-adapted species via montane lakes, while future climate warming is thought to constrain their distributions. We test this hypothesis by using phylogeographic analysis and niche modeling of the Holarctic crustacean Gammarus lacustris with global sampling comprised of 567 sequenced individuals and 3180 occurrence records. We found that the species arose in Tian Shan in Central Asia and dispersed into montane lakes along the Alps, Himalayas, Tibet, East Asia, and the North American Rocky Mountain ranges, with accelerated diversification rates outside Tian Shan. Climatically suitable regions for geographic lineages of G. lacustris were larger during cooling periods (LGM), but smaller during warming periods (Mid-Holocene). In the future (2070) scenario, potential distributions in the Himalayas, North Tibet, South Tibet and North America are predicted to expand, whereas ranges in East Asia, Europe and Tian Shan will decline. Our results suggest that Mid-Miocene-to-Pleistocene continuous cooling promoted multiple independent dispersal events out of Tian Shan due to increased availability of montane lakes via "budding" of lineages. Montane lakes are conduits through which cold-adapted amphipods globally dispersed, dominating circumboreal lakes. However, future climate warming is likely to force organisms to shift upward in altitude and northward in latitude, leading to a future change in local populations. These findings highlight the importance of conservation of montane lakes, especially in the context of climate change.